Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Fixing Hubbert Linearization




Run this in wxMaxima:


plot2d([parametric,2-2/(%e^-(%e^-t)+1),((2*%e^(-%e^(-t)-t))/(%e^(-%e^(-t))+1)^2)/(2-2/(%e^-(%e^-t)+1)),[t,-2,5],[nticks,80]])$


Basically it fixes Hubbert Linearization by using a skewed, rather than normal distribution on the production curve. It fits the early data points a lot better.












Moreover, the lower 48 production curve is, indeed, skewed in the required way:


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